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.Lewis Carroll was amused by contradictions; Wittgenstein wasbemused; but the strategist Edward Luttwak (an influentialPentagon advisor) is bewitched.Carroll s literary nonsense freesus from the constraints of logic and common sense for a fewmerry hours.Luttwak s nonsense mocks logical and empiricalanalysis of the obdurate realities of the nuclear age.Strategic practice can be freed from the mislead-ing influence of common sense logic.This offersthe prospect of an eventual liberation from the falsedisciplines of consistency and coherence.1338 R ON HI RSCHBEI NThis is not an invitation for an excursion into Hegeliandialectics (1770 1831) that resolves contradictions.Hegel, fol-lowed by Marx (1818 1883), argued that the contradictionsinherent in thought and life are dynamic, and can generate agrand synthesis that resolves the contradiction.(Marx hopedthat worsening contradictions of capitalism would be resolvedby socialism we re still hoping.)But like the Mad Hatter, Luttwak finds amazing gracein irresolvable contradictions.He reiterates a Latin proverb: If you would have peace, prepare for war. 14 But why not: Ifyou would have war, prepare for war? Such a discussion mightend the bewitchment of Luttwak s language game.Strategists prepare for war.They play dangerous games.A balancing act Delicate Balance of Terror is a favoritelanguage game.15 Strategists depart from reality and go on amagical mystery tour where abstractions only refer to otherabstractions.(When  terrorism got bad press the name waschanged to  balance of power to protect the guilty.) What s theproper balance of terror? Wittgenstein warned against tryingto resolve such irresolvable confusion.Just how much terror isessential to assure that  safety will be the sturdy child of ter-ror? The question is hotly disputed.Too little and the Sovietswon t get the message be afraid, be terribly afraid; too muchand the Soviets have incentive to strike first.(If this disputereminds you about conjectures about how many angels candance on the head of a pin, you got it right.) Balance makes sensewhen you think of laboratory scales or algebraic equationscheck the weights or do the math.But how can disputes aboutbalance between nuclear forces be resolved? Indeed, can terrorlet alone sufficient nuclear terror be properly defined, letalone reckoned?Both Lewis Carroll and Ludwig Wittgenstein would rec-ognize such disputes as bewitching language games playedwith meaningless words literary nonsense.Such nonsensedelights Carroll, angers Wittgenstein, and drives strategists tothe brink of the abyss.NUCLEAR STRATEGI STS I N WONDERLAND 39Did the Mad Hatter and the others pretend to be madto bedevil Alice? Was this Carroll s playful intention? Whoknows? We do know that on occasion American officials con-sidered feigning madness to bedevil enemies it gets curiouserand curiouser.Nixon took a turn at Let s Pretend to Be Mad.According to Nixon confidant H.R.Haldeman, the presidenttoyed with playing the madman card to exact concessions fromthe Vietnamese.We were walking along a foggy beach.He [Nixon]said,  I call it the Madman theory, Bob.I want theNorth Vietnamese to believe I ve reached the pointwhere I might do anything to stop the war.We ll justslip the word to them that, for god s sake, you knowNixon is obsessed with Communism.We can t restrainhim when he s angry and he has his hand on thenuclear button. 16Strategists aren t really mad, but they get recklessly highwhen they reach for that bottle marked drink this! Is a12-step program necessary to cure their addiction? Fred Iklé,a strategist and policymaker, thinks so:Strategic analysis works like a narcotic.It dulls oursenses of moral outrage about the tragic confrontationof nuclear arsenals primed.to unleash widespreadgenocide.17Iklé has reason to worry.Strategists such as ThomasSchelling play a game they call Russian roulette.18 (Someoneneeds to make a video entitled  Strategists Gone Wild. )Schelling boasts that he and his Pentagon colleagues riskednuclear war by confronting the Soviets in Berlin and Cuba.Here s how they think.Here s how the world could end witha bang, not a whimper Lewis Carroll would love it:  Hethinks we think he ll attack, so he thinks we shall, so he will,so we must. 19 During the Cold War every president took hischances and spun the barrel.2040 R ON HI RSCHBEI NBy all accounts the world came closest to a nuclear confla-gration during the Cuban missile crisis [ Pobierz caÅ‚ość w formacie PDF ]